Said Abdullah

Hupfumi hweVietnam huri panhamba 44 pakukura pasi rose uye kubvira pakati pemakore ekuma1980, Vietnam yachinja zvikuru kubva pakuva nehupfumi hwemauto hwakanyanya nerutsigiro kubva kuhupfumi hwakasununguka hwakavakirwa pamusika.

Hazvishamisi kuti ndeimwe yehupfumi hwenyika huri kukura nekukurumidza, neGDP yegore negore inosvika 5.1%, izvo zvinoita kuti hupfumi hwayo huve hwechi20 pakukura pasi rose panosvika gore ra2050.

Zvisinei, shoko guru pasi rose nderekuti Vietnam yagadzirira kuva imwe yenzvimbo huru dzekugadzira zvinhu ine mukana wekutora China nekufambira mberi kwayo kukuru mune zvehupfumi.

Zvinonyanya kukosha kuti Vietnam iri kukura senzvimbo yekugadzira zvinhu munharaunda iyi, kunyanya muzvikamu zvakaita semachira, shangu, uye zvemagetsi.

Kune rumwe rutivi, kubvira kuma1980, China yanga iri nzvimbo huru yekugadzira zvinhu pasi rose ine zvinhu zvayo zvakawanda, vashandi uye kugona kwayo kugadzira zvinhu. Kubudirira kwemaindasitiri kwave kuchinyanya kutariswa uko maindasitiri ekugadzira michina nesimbi akapihwa mukana wepamusoro.

Nekuda kwehukama huri pakati peWashington neBeijing, ramangwana rezvekutengesa zvinhu pasi rose harina kunyatsojeka. Kunyangwe mashoko asingatarisirwi eWhite House achiramba achimutsa mibvunzo nezvegwara rekutengeserana kweUS, mitero yehondo yekutengeserana ichiri kushanda.

Zvichakadaro, kusawirirana kuripo kubva mumutemo wekuchengetedzwa kwenyika wakarongwa neBeijing, uyo unotyisidzira kudzikamisa kuzvitonga kweHong Kong, kuri kuisawo munjodzi chibvumirano chekutengeserana chechikamu chekutanga chisina kusimba pakati penyika mbiri idzi dzine simba. Tisingatauri nezvekukwira kwemitengo yevashandi zvinoreva kuti China ichatevera indasitiri yemhando yepamusoro isingashandisi vashandi vakawanda zvakanyanya.

Kusagadzikana uku, pamwe chete nemujaho wekutsvaga zvekushandisa pakurapa nekugadzira mushonga weCOVID-19, kuri kukonzera kuongororwa patsva kwezvekutengesa panguva chaiyo zvinopa mukana wekushanda zvakanaka kupfuura zvimwe zvese.

Panguva imwe chete, manejimendi eCOVID-19 neChina akonzera mibvunzo yakawanda pakati penyika dzekumadokero. Kunyange hazvo, Vietnam iri imwe yenyika huru dzakatanga kuderedza matanho ekusagara pedyo nevanhu uye kuvhurazve nzanga yayo kubva muna Kubvumbi 2020, uko nyika zhinji dziri kutanga kugadzirisa kuoma nekupararira kweCOVID-19.

Pasi rose rashamiswa nekubudirira kweVietnam munguva ino yedenda reCOVID-19.

Tarisiro yeVietnam senzvimbo yekugadzira zvinhu

Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu aya ari kuitika pasi rose, hupfumi huri kusimukira hweAsia - Vietnam - huri kugadzirira kuva muzinda unotevera wekugadzira zvinhu.

Vietnam yave kukwikwidza kwakasimba kuti iwane chikamu chikuru munyika mushure meCOVID-19.

Sekureva kweKearney US Reshoring Index, iyo inoenzanisa zvigadzirwa zvemuAmerica zvinogadzirwa kubva kunyika gumi neina dzemuAsia, yakakwira zvakanyanya muna 2019, nekuda kwekuderera kwe17% kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kubva kuChina.

Sangano reAmerican Chamber of Commerce muSouth China rakaonawo kuti 64% yemakambani ekuAmerica ari kumaodzanyemba kwenyika ari kufunga nezvekuendesa zvigadzirwa kune dzimwe nzvimbo, sekureva kweMedium report.

Hupfumi hweVietnam hwakakura ne8% muna 2019, zvichibatsirwa nekuwedzera kwekutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika. Hunotarisirwawo kukura ne1.5% gore rino.

Bhanga repasi rose rakafanotaura kuti muchiitiko chakaipisisa cheCOVID-19, GDP yeVietnam ichadzikira kusvika pa1.5% gore rino, izvo zviri nani pane zvakawanda zvevavakidzani vayo vekuSouth Asia.

Kunze kwezvo, nekushanda nesimba, kushambadza nyika, uye kugadzira mamiriro akanaka ekudyara, Vietnam yakakwezva makambani/kudyara kwekunze, ichipa vagadziri mukana wekupinda munzvimbo dzekutengeserana dzakasununguka dzeASEAN uye zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvinosarudzwa nenyika dziri muAsia neEuropean Union, pamwe neUSA.

Tisingatauri kuti munguva pfupi yapfuura nyika iyi yakawedzera kugadzirwa kwemidziyo yekurapa uye yakapa zvipo zvine chekuita nayo kunyika dzakabatwa neCOVID-19, pamwe nekuUSA, Russia, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, neUK.

Chimwe chiitiko chitsva chakakosha mukana wekuti makambani akawanda ekuAmerica atengese mbatya kubva kuChina kuenda kuVietnam. Uye chikamu cheVietnam chembatya dzinobva kuUS chabudirira sezvo chikamu cheChina chiri mumusika chiri kudzikira - nyika yakatopfuura China uye yakatora nzvimbo yepamusoro mukutengesa mbatya kuUS munaKurume naKubvumbi gore rino.

Ruzivo rwekutengeserana kwezvinhu zvemuUS muna 2019 runoratidza mamiriro ezvinhu aya, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika neVietnam kuUSA hwakawedzera ne35%, kana kuti $17.5 bhiriyoni.

Kwemakore makumi maviri apfuura, nyika yave ichichinja zvikuru kuti ikwanise kugutsa maindasitiri akasiyana-siyana. Vietnam yave ichichinja kubva pahupfumi hwayo hwekurima zvakanyanya kuti igadzire hupfumi hwakavakirwa pamusika uye hwakatarisana nemaindasitiri.

Dambudziko rekukunda

Asi kune matambudziko akawanda anofanira kugadziriswa kana nyika ichida kubatana neChina.

Semuenzaniso, hunhu hweVietnam hweindasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu ine vashandi vashoma hunogona kukonzera njodzi - kana nyika ikasakwira muchikamu chemutengo, dzimwe nyika dziri munharaunda dzakadai seBangladesh, Thailand kana Cambodia dzinopawo vashandi vashoma.

Pamusoro pezvo, nekuedza kukuru kwehurumende kuunza mari yakawanda mukugadzira tekinoroji yepamusoro uye zvivakwa kuti zvienderane nehurongwa hwepasi rose hwekugovera, kambani shoma yepasi rose (MNCs) chete ndiyo ine mabasa mashoma ekutsvaga nekusimudzira (R&D) muVietnam.

Denda reCOVID-19 rakaratidzawo kuti Vietnam inonyanya kuvimba nezvinhu zvinotengwa kunze kwenyika uye inongoshanda sekugadzira nekuunganidza zvigadzirwa zvekutengesera kunze kwenyika. Pasina indasitiri yakakura yekutsigira, chichava chiroto chekushuvira kugadzira zvinhu zvakaita seChina.

Kunze kweizvi, zvimwe zvipingamupinyi zvinosanganisira hukuru hweboka revashandi, kugona kwevashandi vane hunyanzvi, kugona kugadzirisa kudiwa kwekugadzira kwakangoerekana kwaitika, nezvimwe zvakawanda.

Imwe nzvimbo huru ndeyemabhizinesi madiki, madiki nepakati eVietnam (MSMEs) - ane 93.7% yemakambani ese - anongogumira kumisika midiki uye haakwanise kuwedzera mashandiro awo kusvika kune vanhu vakawanda. Izvi zvichiita kuti ive nzvimbo yakaoma munguva dzematambudziko, sezvakaita denda reCOVID-19.

Saka, zvakakosha kuti mabhizinesi adzokere shure ofungazve nezvehurongwa hwavo hwekuchinja zvinhu - tichifunga kuti nyika ichiri nematanho akawanda ekutevera mafambiro eChina, zvingave zvakanaka here kuti pave nehurongwa hwekuti 'China-plus-one'?