Sayed Abdullah

Hupfumi hweVietnam ndihwo hwemakumi mana nehukuru pasi rose uye kubva pakati pemakore ekuma1980 Vietnam yakaita shanduko huru kubva kuhupfumi hwepakati hwekuraira nerutsigiro kubva kumusika wakavhurika wakavakirwa hupfumi.

Hazvishamise kuti iri zvakare imwe yeinokurumidza kukura hupfumi hwenyika, ine mukana wepagore weGDP wekukura weanosvika 5.1%, izvo zvaizoita kuti hupfumi hwayo huve makumi maviri-hukuru pasi rose panosvika 2050.

Tataura izvozvo, shoko ririkunetsa pasi rose nderekuti Vietnam yagadzirira kuve imwe yenzvimbo huru dzekugadzira ine mukana wekutora China nemafambiro ayo makuru ehupfumi.

Zvikurukuru, Vietnam iri kusimukira senzvimbo yekugadzira mudunhu, kunyanya kune zvikamu zvakaita sembatya dzemachira neshangu uye zvemagetsi chikamu.

Kune rimwe divi, kubva kuma80s China yanga ichitamba chinzvimbo chepasi rose kugadzira hub nehukuru hwayo hwekushandisa, manpower uye maindasitiri kugona.Kusimukira kwemaindasitiri kwakapihwa kutariswa kwakakura uko maindasitiri ekugadzira-muchina nemetallurgical akagamuchira zvakakosha zvikuru.

Nehukama pakati peWashington neBeijing mukudonha kwemahara, remangwana remaketani epasi rose ane hunyanzvi.Kunyangwe mameseji asingafungidzirwe eWhite House achiramba achimutsa mibvunzo nezve gwara remutemo wekutengeserana weUS, mitero yehondo yekutengeserana inoramba ichishanda.

Zvichakadaro, kudonha kubva kuBeijing mutemo wezvekuchengetedzwa kwenyika, uyo unotyisidzira kumanikidza kuzvitonga kweHong Kong, zvinowedzera kuisa mungozi chikamu chekutanga chibvumirano chekutengeserana pakati pemasimba maviri makuru.Tisingataure nezvekukwira kwemitengo yevashandi zvinoreva kuti China ichatevera indasitiri isinganyanyi kukosha yekushanda.

Hushasha uhwu, hwakabatana nemujaho wekuchengetedza zvekushandisa pakurapa uye kugadzira yekudzivirira yeCCIDID-19, kuri kumutsa kuongororwazve kwemaketani ekupa-munguva-nguva ayo ane rombo rakanaka kupfuura zvese.

Panguva imwe cheteyo, iyo COVID-19 kubata neChina kwakamutsa mibvunzo yakawanda pakati pemasimba ekumadokero.Ipo, Vietnam ndiyo imwe yenyika dzekutanga kudzoreredza nhanho dzekufambidzana uye kuvhurazve nharaunda yayo kutanga kwaKubvumbi 2020, uko nyika zhinji dziri kungotanga kutarisana nekuoma uye kupararira kweCCIDID-19.

Nyika inokatyamadzwa nekubudirira kweVietnam panguva iyi yeCOVID-19 denda.

Tarisiro yeVietnam senge hub yekugadzira

Zvichipokana nemamiriro ezvinhu epasirese arikuitika, hupfumi hweAsia huri kusimukira - Vietnam - hwave kusimuka kuti ive inotevera kugadzira magetsi.

Vietnam yakaita semukwikwidzi akasimba wekubata chikamu chikuru munyika yepost-COVID-19.

Sekureva kweKearney US Reshoring Index, iyo inofananidza kuburitsa kweUS kune yayo yekugadzira zvinhu kubva kunyika gumi neina dzeAsia, yakakwira rekodhi yakakwira muna 2019, nekuda kwekudzikira kwegumi nenomwe muzana mukutengeswa kweChina.

IAmerican Chamber of Commerce muSouth China yakawanawo kuti 64% yemakambani eUS ari kumaodzanyemba kwenyika anga achifunga kufambisa kugadzira kumwe kunhu, sekureva kweMedium chirevo.

Hupfumi hweVietnam hwakakura ne8% muna 2019, zvichibatsirwa nekuwedzera kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika.Inotarisirwawo kukura ne1.5% gore rino.

Kufanotaura kweWorld Bank mune yakaipisisa COVID-19 kesi mamiriro ekuti GDP yeVietnam ichadonha kusvika 1.5% gore rino, iri nani kupfuura vazhinji vevavakidzani vayo vekuSouth Asia.

Kunze kwezvo, nemusanganiswa wekushanda nesimba, kugadzira nyika, uye kugadzira mamiriro ekudyara akanaka, Vietnam yakakwezva makambani ekunze/mainvestimenti, ichipa vanogadzira mukana munzvimbo yekutengeserana yemahara yeASEAN uye zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvakasarudzika nenyika muAsia yose neEuropean Union, pamwe chete. iyo USA.

Tisingatauri, munguva pfupi yapfuura nyika yakasimbisa kugadzirwa kwemidziyo yekurapa uye yakapa mipiro ine chekuita neCOVID-19 nyika dzakakanganisika, pamwe neUSA, Russia, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, uye UK.

Chimwe chiitiko chitsva chakakosha mukana wekuti mamwe makambani eUS agadzire kugadzirwa kubva kuChina kuenda kuVietnam.Uye chikamu cheVietnam chekutenga mbatya dzemuUS chakawana pundutso sezvo chikamu cheChina mumusika chiri kutsvedza - nyika yakatopfuura China uye yakaisa pamusoro pemutengesi wembatya kuUS munaKurume naKubvumbi gore rino.

Iyo data yekutengeserana kwekutengesa kweUS ye2019 inoratidza mamiriro aya, kutengeswa kweVietnam kuUS kwakakwira ne35%, kana madhora bhiriyoni gumi nematanhatu.

Kwemakumi maviri emakore apfuura, nyika yanga ichichinja zvakanyanya kuti ienderane neakasiyana maindasitiri.Vietnam yave kusuduruka kubva kuhupfumi hwayo hwekurima kuti ivandudze hupfumi hwakavakirwa pamusika uye hwakatarisana nemaindasitiri.

Bottleneck's kukunda

Asi pane zvimhingamipinyi zvakawanda zvinofanirwa kugadziriswa kana nyika ichida kudyidzana neChina.

Semuyenzaniso, hunhu hweVietnam hweindasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu zvakachipa inokonzeresa njodzi - kana nyika ikasakwira muchikamu cheukoshi, dzimwe nyika dziri mudunhu dzakaita seBangladesh, Thailand kana Cambodia dzinopawo vashandi vakachipa.

Pamusoro pezvo, nekuedza kukuru kwehurumende kuunza mari yakawanda mukugadzirwa kwe-hi-tech uye zvivakwa kuti zvienderane neiyo yepasirese yekutengesa, kambani shoma yepasi rose (MNCs) ine mashoma ekutsvaga nekusimudzira zviitiko (R&D) muVietnam.

Denda reCCIDID-19 rakafumurawo kuti Vietnam inonyanya kutsamira pakutenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika uye kungotamba basa rekugadzira nekuunganidza zvigadzirwa zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika.Pasina yakakura kumashure inobatanidza indasitiri yekutsigira, ichave chishuwo chiroto kubata uku ukuru hwekugadzira seChina.

Kunze kweizvi, zvimwe zvipingamupinyi zvinosanganisira saizi yedziva revashandi, kuwanikwa kwevashandi vane hunyanzvi, kugona kubata nekungoerekana kubuda mukudiwa kwekugadzira, nezvimwe zvakawanda.

Imwe nhandare yakakosha ndeyeVietnam madiki, madiki uye epakati mabhizinesi (MSMEs) - anosanganisira 93.7% yezvese bhizinesi - anoganhurirwa kumisika midiki uye haakwanise kuwedzera mashandiro awo kune vateereri vakawanda.Kuita kuti ive nzvimbo yakakomba yekudzipa munguva dzekutambudzika, senge COVID-19 denda.

Naizvozvo, zvakakosha kuti mabhizinesi atore nhanho yekudzokera kumashure uye atarisezve nzira yavo yekumisikidza - zvakapihwa kuti nyika ichine mamaira akawanda kuti ienderane nekumhanya kweChina, zvingave zvine musoro here kuenda ku 'China-plus-one'. strategy pane?